Oil falls most in three weeks as OPEC crude production climbs

MARK SHENK and GRANT SMITH

 

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) -- Oil dropped the most in three weeks after OPEC reported that its members pumped the most crude in three years.

 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 31.57 MMbopd last month, the most since 2012, according to its monthly market report. The market may be “balanced” in 2016 as demand grows and non-OPEC supply contracts, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri, said at a conference in Kuwait City on Monday.

 

West Texas Intermediate rose above $50/bbl on Oct. 8 for the first time since July, yet failed to settle above that mark on concern that oversupplies will persist. U.S. oil explorers idled rigs for a sixth week as they struggle with low prices, data from Baker Hughes Inc. showed on Friday. That may whittle away U.S. inventories, which remain about 100 MMbbl above the five-year average.

 

"Traders are seizing on the monthly OPEC report today," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "OPEC pumping at the highest level in three years is a very bearish element. The decline in U.S. production is a drop in the bucket compared with the OPEC increase."

 

WTI for November delivery declined $1.58, or 3.2%, to $48.05/bbl at 12:35 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell as much as 3.6%, the most since Sept. 18. The trading range was $47.85 to $50.13. The volume of all futures traded was down 6% from the 100-day average.

 

Trading volume in the U.S. is lighter than normal amid the Columbus Day federal holiday.

 

"The holiday has to have something to do with the size of the move today, Katherine Spector, a commodities strategist at CIBC World Markets in New York, said by phone. "Thin volumes mean lower liquidity."

 

Balanced Market

 

Brent for November settlement dropped $1.63, or 3.1%, to $51.02/bbl on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a $2.97 premium to WTI.

 

OPEC sees production outside the group shrinking by 130,000 bopd next year as the U.S. shale boom collapses. The group forecasts demand for its crude in 2016 to be 30.8 MMbpd, revising its demand outlook upward by half a million barrels.

 

“At OPEC, we are hopeful that the industry will see a more balanced oil market in 2016,” El-Badri said. “We have recently seen a contraction in production from some non-OPEC producers and an uptick in demand growth.”

 

Watching Gap

 

The gap in oil supply and demand is due to close in the third quarter of 2016, Mohammad Ghazi Al-Mutairi, CEO of state-run Kuwait National Petroleum Co., said at the Kuwait conference. Prices have bottomed and there are signs of a recovery in 2016, according to Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada.

 

U.S. crude stockpiles rose 3.07 MMbbl to 461 MMbbl in the week ended Oct. 2, according to the Energy Information Administration. Production increased 76,000 bopd to 9.17 million during the period.

 

WTI came within 4 cents of breaching the 200-day moving average Friday and failed again Monday, a signal to sell. The 200-day moving average stands at $50.93.

 

"The market is below some important long-term averages and failed to break through," Tom Finlon, Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy Analytics Group LLC, said by phone. "The market fundamentals still look dreadful. There’s still an awful lot of crude in storage, and we’re still pumping over 9 MMbpd of crude."